As the hours count down to the U.S. presidential decision, will Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris emerge victorious? With the race in its final stages, polling shows a close competition, unlike in 2016, when Hillary Clinton was favored up to the last moment—only for Trump to secure an unexpected win, shocking many observers.
Could a similar surprise be in store this time, and could Trump or Harris employ a new technical "trick" to shift the balance? The use of technology in elections is no longer surprising, and many observers worry that data from various tech systems might allow for manipulation of voter emotions and opinions. This influence, often amplified by both traditional and new media, can make the election process feel like a staged drama rather than a serious exercise focused on voters' priorities.
What is Contextual Emotional Analysis, and How Does It Differ from Sentiment Analysis?
"Sentiment Analysis" is commonly used in data science and text analysis to categorize texts based on basic emotions such as positive, negative, or neutral. This method relies on algorithms that interpret emotions by analyzing keywords or sentence structures.
In contrast, "Contextual Emotional Analysis" delves deeper, incorporating the psychological experiences and personal history of the individual. It uses a human-centric approach to assess mixed emotions and psychological states, rather than merely classifying text into one emotional category.
To illustrate Contextual Emotional Analysis, consider the song "Ana Ktir" by Sherine, released in 2014—a sad song expressing layered emotions. Sherine sings:
"I'm a lot of things combined, living alone yet not feeling lonely. There’s strange sadness in my laughter, and in my sadness, a smile. I love myself but hate the feeling that I love myself. Nothing affects me; I'm truthful about my flaws, not hiding them. When I'm lost, I'm focused on my own confusion, and if I ever get hurt, it could destroy me. That’s why I'm guarded and avoid taking risks."
This analysis would seek to understand the complex and often contradictory emotions in Sherine's lyrics, recognizing that her feelings are nuanced and shaped by personal experiences rather than fitting neatly into one category.
Can AI Detect Complex Emotions in Songs Without Music?
Although the lyrics of the song "Ana Keteer" are in Egyptian dialect and combine contrasting emotions of sadness, joy, laughter, and tears, the overall feeling conveyed, especially with the music, is one of melancholy. But can artificial intelligence, without the music and using only the lyrics in Egyptian dialect, accurately grasp the emotions of the speaker?
We conducted an experiment with ChatGPT using this song to see if AI could go beyond basic sentiment analysis. This helped illustrate how AI's emotional insights might have played a role in Donald Trump's 2016 election campaign, where emotional targeting strategies were reportedly used to sway voters.
We tested ChatGPT's contextual emotional analysis by asking it, based on psychological insights, how it would target someone like the speaker in the song if it were running an election campaign. Its responses showed an ability to tailor messages effectively based on personality insights.
Could This Reoccur in 2024 Despite New Safeguards?
It’s hard to definitively say that one—or both—candidates in the 2024 election won’t use AI-driven techniques to influence voters, despite new legal and technological safeguards. Media sentiment analysis from July 2024 shows an increase in articles focused on election integrity, hinting at growing concerns over potential election manipulation.
The Impact of July on the U.S. Election
– On July 13, 2024, Donald Trump, the former U.S. president and Republican candidate, survived an assassination attempt during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
– On July 21, 2024, Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, announced her presidential campaign after President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy and endorsed her.
Sentiment monitoring throughout July saw a surge in discussions about election integrity, reflecting heightened media focus on potential manipulation.
What Does This Indicate?
While this analysis may not predict any specific outcomes, as journalists, it’s essential to consider the implications. Should Trump win, a scandal similar to Cambridge Analytica could emerge, claiming AI-driven and targeted messaging manipulated public opinion. Conversely, a Harris victory might trigger disputes over election fairness, possibly even protests or unrest like the January 6 Capitol riot in 2021.
These past events have placed the democratic process of one of the world’s largest democracies under intense scrutiny. The question remains: do media and technology control democratic processes, or are they merely tools within them?
What Does the Number 270 Mean, and What Happens if Trump and Harris Tie?
The U.S. presidential election operates under a unique system that doesn’t rely on the popular vote alone. As millions of Americans cast their ballots, global attention is on the outcome between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris. But what if, in a rare scenario, the election results in a tie?
The American election system depends on the Electoral College rather than direct popular vote. According to U.S. law, the candidate who reaches 270 of the 538 electoral votes becomes president. Each state’s electoral votes are proportionate to its population, reflecting its representation in Congress—two Senate seats per state plus House seats based on population.
The Electoral College: The System Behind the Trump-Harris Race
For instance, California has 52 representatives, while Wyoming has only one. But what if the race results in a 269-269 tie, leaving both candidates short of the necessary 270 votes? The U.S. Constitution has a plan for such a scenario, as outlined in Article II and the 12th Amendment.
In case of a tie, the election moves to the House of Representatives, where each state delegation, regardless of size, casts a single vote to determine the president. A majority of 26 out of 50 state votes is required to decide the winner.
If the Tie Extends to the Vice Presidency
In this event, the Senate takes over the selection of the vice president, with each Senator casting an individual vote. This could result in a president and vice president from different parties, creating a unique political dynamic.
While such a tie is extremely rare, it has happened once in American history—in 1800, when Thomas Jefferson, a Democratic-Republican, was elected as the third U.S. president after defeating incumbent John Adams.
Positive Media for Trump's Economic Policies and a Neutral Outlook for Harris
The economy has long been a critical focus for any presidential candidate and a decisive factor for voters when choosing a representative for the Oval Office. With economic downturns affecting many global markets and the recent decline of the U.S. dollar against some European currencies, Americans are looking to the presidential candidates for solutions.
Donald Trump returns to the race after leaving the Oval Office in 2018 following a loss to Joe Biden, while Kamala Harris, current Vice President, seeks to establish her own economic vision. Both have previously held influential positions in the U.S. government, lending credibility to their economic stances.
Positive Outlook on Trump’s Economic Policies
During Trump’s previous term, several significant economic decisions impacted the global economy, notably the restriction on Huawei's access to American technologies, which heavily affected the company and related job prospects in the U.S. Despite such decisions, Western media tends to view Trump’s economic plans positively, as demonstrated in the "Media Sentiment Analysis" tool used by Al Jazeera and reflected in global headlines.
Al Jazeera tracked over 137 articles discussing the economic plans of both candidates from January to November this year. According to their analysis, Trump garnered a higher percentage of positive coverage at 19.12%, while Harris’s economic policies received 5.15% positive sentiment, with a predominantly neutral tone toward her plans.
This positive sentiment reflects in the dollar’s value against other currencies, as reported by the Financial Times, which attributed the dollar’s recent decline partly to Harris's rising popularity in Iowa’s latest polls. The Economist echoed this perspective, suggesting that investors anticipate Trump’s return to the White House as beneficial for the economy and likely to strengthen the dollar’s value.
Elon Musk, during his support tour for Trump, cited the first term as tough and frugal, yet a necessary period to achieve a more prosperous and sustainable economy. Musk’s substantial $75 million investment in Trump’s campaign reflects this sentiment, as noted by Vox.
As the election day approaches, the "Media Sentiment Analysis" dashboard reveals an increase in economic coverage for each candidate, with a 50% surge in related news by September. This rise aligns with Trump’s discussions on increasing taxes on Chinese imports and economic experts’ comparative reports on Trump and Harris’s future economic plans.
Leveraging ChatGPT for Data Analysis
ChatGPT provides advanced capabilities to analyze articles by reading and categorizing content through pre-set indicators, allowing it to classify articles as pro-Trump, pro-Harris, or neutral. By leveraging extensive online sources, including Google searches and social media, ChatGPT enhances the accuracy of media sentiment analysis, making it possible to evaluate thousands of articles quickly and comprehensively.
This AI-driven approach exemplifies how modern technologies support journalism, offering insights into media sentiment around U.S. presidential candidates through tools like the "Media Sentiment Analysis" dashboard. Such tools streamline data gathering and reporting, giving experts a comprehensive overview of media perspectives on candidates' economic policies.
